A probability index for fiddle sit-ins on the Dave Matthews Band 2026 tour. Higher scores mean Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, or another guest fiddler is more likely to join.
UPDATED 15 June 202678 SHOWS54 PLAYED13 SIT-INS CONFIRMED
DMB ELEVATED
DMB NEUTRAL
DMB LOW
JAKE SIMPSON
CASEY DRIESSEN
TODAY · 14 JUN
02 · SCHEDULE
DMB Tourdates
03 · MODEL
How the score works
Model expected18 sit-ins
Actual13 sit-ins
Across the 54 played shows since spring 2025, the model expected ~18 fiddle sit-ins. Thirteen occurred. The model casts a slightly wider net than reality (better to surface a possible sit-in than miss one). The page tracks both numbers as the tour progresses.
Each show starts at an 18% baseline. Four inputs adjust the score: a shared festival bill, Jake Simpson's availability, regional signals from the other fiddlers in the rotation, and the recurring base rate.
Input · 01
+50
Shared festival bill. DMB and one of the tracked fiddlers on the same lineup. The strongest single signal: Wildlands and Farm Aid 40 in 2025 were both shared-bill sit-ins with Jake Simpson.
Input · 02
+30
Jake Simpson's availability. Tracked via Lukas Nelson's tour calendar (Jake's primary commitment) combined with Jake's own confirmed DMB sit-in nights. Long stretches without activity mean Jake is free to travel. The Gorge run in Aug 2025 happened during a 5-week Lukas gap.
Input · 03
+25
Regional signals. Casey Driessen (Carolinas), Jason Crosby (NY/NJ/CT tri-state), and Tatiana Hargreaves (Carolinas) each add a regional bump when DMB plays their home turf or near a published date.
Input · 04
+18
Baseline floor. Four tracked fiddlers in active rotation: Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, Tatiana Hargreaves, and Jason Crosby. Sierra Hull is also confirmed for Gorge 9/6. Every show carries a non-trivial floor probability that a fiddle guest shows up.